
The Black Friday Lie Nobody's Talking About
This week, millions of Americans will flood malls for Black Friday. The headlines will scream "retail comeback."
Here's what they're not telling you:
While everyone celebrates, 1.1 billion square feet of Class B and C retail sits vacant, obsolete, and massively undervalued.
Most owners, investors, and developers are walking right past the single greatest real estate opportunity of the decade.
The market didn't recover. It split in two.
Class A malls and experiential retail are thriving. But commodity-driven, unanchored strip centers and big-box stores? They're functionally obsolete—and that's exactly where the alpha lives.
E-commerce didn't kill retail. It just exposed which assets were built for the future and which were built for a world that no longer exists.
"Since 2020, 157 million square feet of obsolete retail has been demolished, which is way exceeding new speculative supply. If I'm a retail owner, I love that. I want that number to be even higher because that means there's less people competing for the same amount of tenants."
What Everyone Gets Wrong About Vacant Retail (And Why That's Your Advantage)
Strip malls, big-box stores, and "gray shell" groceries aren't dead weight.
They're pre-paid infrastructure disguised as distressed assets.
Here's what makes them gold mines that everyone else is missing:
Why These "Obsolete" Buildings Are Actually Perfect
Big-box stores are single-story, clear-span shells. Minimal interior complexity. Cheap to gut. Ideal for modular build-outs—residential pods, medical suites, automated logistics equipment.
The Infrastructure Nobody's Valuing (But You Should)
These sites come loaded with embedded value most investors ignore:
High-tonnage HVAC systems (built for massive retail freezers)
Industrial-grade electrical panels (amps to power heavy equipment)
Restaurant-grade sewer and water hookups (high-capacity infrastructure)
This represents massive CAPEX savings compared to starting from scratch on raw land.
The Zoning Shortcut That Changes Everything
Almost universally zoned commercial. For logistics, healthcare, or other commercial conversions, you're looking at as-of-right or minor variance—not the nightmare rezoning required for office-to-residential.
The vast surface parking isn't just excess space. It's a developable land parcel with pre-paid infrastructure. This is where the real alpha lives—and most investors never even see it.
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The 4 Conversion Paths Nobody's Capitalizing On (Yet)
This isn't one strategy. It's a portfolio of high-demand plays based on local demographics, zoning, and site characteristics.
Path #1: The Housing Play Everyone Says Is Impossible
Convert vacant retail into affordable, modular housing. The infrastructure's already there—HVAC, electrical, water, sewer. The zoning path is simpler than office-to-residential. The demand is screaming.
Path #2: The E-Commerce Engine Hiding in Plain Sight
Repurpose retail sites into micro-fulfillment centers. They're near residential rooftops. High electrical capacity. Clear-span layouts perfect for automated equipment. Amazon's already doing this—are you?
Path #3: The Alpha Play 95% of Investors Are Missing
That surface parking? It's not excess space—it's Industrial Outdoor Storage (IOS). One of the fastest-growing CRE sectors. Driven by logistics, construction, fleet storage. This is the opportunity hiding in plain sight.
Path #4: The Community Anchor That Solves Two Problems
Convert retail into healthcare facilities, urgent care centers, community hubs. Already zoned commercial. Located near population centers. Infrastructure ready for medical operations. Demand is undeniable.
The Market Data Nobody's Connecting (But You Need to See)
While retail vacancy is up 30 basis points year-over-year, here's what the headlines miss:
The demolition wave is creating scarcity. 157 million square feet of obsolete retail demolished since 2020—far exceeding new supply. Meanwhile, new construction is at historic lows (41 million square feet delivered in 12 months, one of the lowest figures ever tracked).
Investment capital is flooding back. Retail sales volume hit $66.1 billion, up 20% year-over-year. Fourth consecutive quarterly increase. While industrial investment fell to a quarter of its peak, retail is surging.
Building costs are your moat. Construction costs have skyrocketed so dramatically that existing assets with pre-paid infrastructure have an insulation layer against new competition. No one can afford to build next to you and compete.
This isn't a distressed market. It's a bifurcated market with massive opportunity on one side and legacy risk on the other.
Once you've identified the repositioning opportunity whether it's a retail, mixed use development, or multifamily/residential investment props you need a construction partner who can execute with precision and accountability. Build It Brit, Inc., a woman-owned construction company led by Licensed General Contractor Britney Mroczkowski (CGC1530786), specializes in exactly these types of complex projects.
With over a decade of experience in commercial tenant buildouts, retail construction, and transformative remodels and involvement in over $320 million in projects Build It Brit brings the field expertise and solutions-first mindset critical for navigating permitting, coordinating subcontractors, and meeting tight timelines. Britney's background as VP of Retail Development for Tampa's Westshore Marina District gives her unique insight into both the development and construction sides of the equation.
For investors and owners looking to align with women-led firms while ensuring quality execution, Build It Brit represents the strategic partnership that delivers both financial returns and ESG impact.
Connect with Build It Brit to discuss your project.
How to Spot the Winners (The Scorecard I Use to Evaluate Every Asset)
Not every vacant retail site is a winner. Here's my framework:
Factor | What to Look For | Weight (1-5) |
|---|---|---|
Location & Demographics | Proximity to rooftops, highways, population growth, affordability gap | 5 |
Physical Site | Land-to-building ratio, gray shell quality, clear-span layout, parking condition | 3 |
Infrastructure | Electrical capacity, HVAC tonnage, sewer/water capacity, fiber connectivity | 4 |
Zoning & Political | As-of-right potential, local goals, P3 appetite, opportunity zone status | 5 |
How to use it: Rank each metric 1-10, multiply by weight, prioritize sites with highest total.
Why This Thanksgiving Matters More Than You Think
While the headlines celebrate Black Friday, the smartest developers are asking a different question:
What if the real opportunity isn't in the stores that are thriving—but in the 1.1 billion square feet everyone else has written off?
The bifurcation already happened. The assets are sitting there, undervalued and overlooked. The infrastructure is pre-paid. The zoning is flexible. The demand is undeniable.
The only question: Are you positioned to capture it before everyone else figures it out?
About The Next Gen Dev
I'm a fractional executive specializing in operational complexity, strategic execution, and smart scaling for commercial real estate owners, investors, and C-suite leaders. I don't just report on trends—I build the frameworks that help you think differently, execute faster, and capture opportunities others miss.
The Next Gen Dev is where strategic insight meets actionable execution. If you're ready to turn distressed assets into high-demand opportunities, scale without bloated payrolls, and position yourself ahead of the market—let's talk.
Let's Build the Future Together

I'm Leigh Brower, a strategic advisor who helps business owners, investors, and developers translate operational complexity into strategic clarity.
Have a distressed retail asset or portfolio you're evaluating? Reply to this email and let's discuss how the framework applies to your specific situation.
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